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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 63

Detroit Lions 10 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to DAL 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.20 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP