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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 3 at the 3
Buffalo Bills 32 – Cincinnati Bengals 28
What Actually Happened
(3:09) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 85-J.Hawes for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+2.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
- 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 3, worth -0.32 EP
KICK
+1.62 EP
- 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT
-0.49 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
