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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis pushed ob at CIN 28 for 17 yards (20-D.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.28 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model