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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 14

Chicago Bears 21 – Green Bay Packers 28

What Actually Happened

(:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +3.22 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP