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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 21 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to CHI 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-39-Z.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.97 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model