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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 39

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 18-C.Williams scrambles right end ran ob at GB 34 for 5 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model