4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 60

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:18) 19-T.Taylor punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model