Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

(:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LA 28, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model