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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 19-K.Johnson to TB 29 for 15 yards (51-T.Reeder; 6-N.Hampton).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model