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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-86-E.Deckers, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.24 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 45, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model