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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(9:37) (Shotgun) 10-T.Bridgewater sacked at LA 25 for -12 yards (8-J.Verse).

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model