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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 31

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to LA 28, Center-86-E.Deckers. 23-K.Williams to LA 36 for 8 yards (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.59 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 83, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP