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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 43

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 23 yards to LA 20, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model