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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 31

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Shotgun) 10-T.Bridgewater sacked at LA 27 for -9 yards (91-K.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.30 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model