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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 31

What Actually Happened

(9:31) (Shotgun) 10-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to LA 19 for 13 yards (30-J.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.26 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model