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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(1:43) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Shepard (1-E.Forbes).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.35 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model