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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 44

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 14-A.McNamara punts 29 yards to BAL 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 83-L.Wester.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.46 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model