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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 20 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(:45) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.68 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model