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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 20 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 11-J.Stout punts 67 yards to NYJ 5, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.12 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP