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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NYJ 8, Center-46-N.Moore. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 21 for 13 yards (27-T.Tampa).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model