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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 24

New York Jets 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(14:46) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.02 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model