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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 2 at the 2
Baltimore Ravens 10 – New York Jets 7
What Actually Happened
(3:35) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.27 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
- 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 2, worth +0.42 EP
KICK
+1.73 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT
+0.05 EP
- New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
