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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 58

New York Jets 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(6:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Metchie.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.15 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model