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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:00) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 29 for 2 yards (91-J.Briggs; 44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.28 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model