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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 47

New York Jets 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:33) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model