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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 13

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 33-T.Loop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.17 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP