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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 53

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 14-A.McNamara punts 35 yards to BAL 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -3.44 EP
KICK -2.13 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.95 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.31 EP
PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model