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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(:03) 37-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.29 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP