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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Giants 27 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson (23-R.Ya-Sin).

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 6, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model