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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 44

Detroit Lions 24 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to NYG 8, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP