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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 43

Detroit Lions 17 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to NYG 7, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-25-J.Saylors.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model