Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 68

Detroit Lions 7 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to NYG 22, Center-49-H.Hatten. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 26 for 4 yards (82-R.Dwelley). PENALTY on NYG-46-Z.Barnes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.65 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model