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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 45

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:04) 8-R.Rehkow punts 35 yards to NE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model