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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 2-E.McPherson 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.06 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP