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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 33

New England Patriots 23 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 36-A.Borregales 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 33, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model