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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 8-R.Rehkow punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.23 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth +0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model