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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 8-R.Rehkow punts 53 yards to NE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner, downed by CIN-38-D.Ivey.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model