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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 40 yards to NE 10, Center-46-W.Wagner. 25-M.Jones to NE 10 for no gain (26-T.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.19 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model