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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 23 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 19-D.Whelan punts 32 yards to MIN 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.63 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.37 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP