4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 12

Green Bay Packers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 17-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.41 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP