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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 17 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 19-D.Whelan punts 50 yards to MIN 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-M.Price.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP