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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to GB 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.22 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model