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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 41

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(:15) 16-W.Reichard 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.45 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model