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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 14

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 17-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.28 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP