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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to CAR 44 for 3 yards (99-T.Wharton).

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.13 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model