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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Carolina Panthers 9

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-B.Purdy up the middle to CAR 41 for 3 yards (57-B.Martin-Scott; 98-D.Wonnum).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.88 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model