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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 39

Carolina Panthers 9 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 10-R.Fitzgerald 57 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model