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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.98 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model