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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model