Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 62

Houston Texans 3 – Buffalo Bills 6

(1:52) 6-T.Townsend punts 57 yards to BUF 5, Center-40-A.Brinkman, downed by HOU-34-A.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.69 EP
56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model